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The tissue of the world is built from necessities and randomness; the intellect of men places itself between both and can control them; it considers the necessity and the reason of its existence; it knows how randomness can be managed, controlled, and used. Goethe
„Das Gewebe dieser Welt ist aus Notwendigkeit und Zufall gebildet; die Vernunft des Menschen stellt sich zwischen beide und weiß sie zu beherrschen; sie behandelt das Notwendige als den Grund ihres Daseins; das Zufällige weiß sie zu lenken, zu leiten und zu nutzen, und nur, indem sie fest und unerschütterlich steht, verdient der Mensch, ein Gott der Erde genannt zu werden.“
Jaringan dunia terbuat dari yang beraturan dan yang acak; orang bijak menempatkan diri diantaranya dan mengendalikan keduanya; mengerti yang beraturan sebagai dasar existensi, tahu mengelola, mengendalikan dan memanfaatkan keacakan. Johann Wolgang von Goethe
We live in a world primarily driven by random jumps, and tools designed for random walks address the wrong problem. B Mandelbrot and N Taleb
There’s only one definition of randomness:
something is random if it is algorithmically incompressible or irreducible. Chaitin
randomness = incompressibility = irreducibility Chaitin
Evolution is a system for turning random mutations to lasting advantage (Economist reviewer of Taleb’s AntiFragile)
Randomness rules our lives, Mlodinow Thesis
when someone weaves a story filled with a lot of concrete details, it seems more vivid and hence more believable than the statements considered separately: that’s the conjunction fallacy. Evidence of people falling for this fallacy has been documented widely even in medicine and the court room. We humans are easily duped by a good story! CF Fearnley
Laplace determinism:Laplace demon
We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes.
—Pierre Simon Laplace, A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
“Max Born wrote, “Chance is a more fundamental conception than causality.”
“in complex systems (among which I count our lives) we should expect that minor factors we can usually ignore will by chance sometimes cause major incidents”
“The normal accident theory of life shows not that the connection between actions and rewards is random but that random influences are as important as our qualities and actions”
“It may come as an epiphany merely to recognize the ubiquitous role of random processes in our lives; the true power of the theory of random processes, however, lies in the fact that once we understand the nature of random processes, we can alter the way we perceive the events that happen around us.”
Excerpts From: Mlodinow, Leonard. “The Drunkard’s Walk.” Knopf, 2008. iBooks.
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Following Poincare’, we say that something is random if the cause seems to have little to do with the effect. Even though there is nothing more deterministic than celestial mechanics, if someone gets hit in the head by a meteor, we say this is bad luck, a random event, because their head and the meteor had little to do with each other. Nobody threw the meteor, and it could just as well have hit someone else.
Creativity is the ability to introduce order into the randomness of nature.
Although randomness had often been viewed as an ob- and a nuisance for many centuries, in the 20th cen- tury computer scientists began to realize that the delib- erate introduction of randomness into computations can be an effective tool for designing better algorithms. In some cases such randomized algorithms outperform the best deterministic methods.
In the face of uncertainty, the brain chooses randomness as the best
“No man knows anything about higher mathematics until he can explain it clearly to the man on the street”
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
Is Perfect Randomness Possible?
has no choice but to modify Einstein’s original views and accept that nonlocality is a fact and that “spooky action at a distance” does happen. That means it’s possible that there are supraluminal or extra-spatial connections among the components of an entangled quantum object even though external information transfer is limited by the speed of light as relativity dictates, and the nonlocality never leaks out into the open.
In the same way, entangled particles form a single entity that can span the entire universe, with an internal connection that may be supraliminal or extra-spatial. Related to this is a fascinating idea known as ER = EPR, the cryptic conjecture by the brilliant theoretical physicists Juan Maldacena and Leonard Susskind. The idea is that entangled particles (EPR) are connected by a wormhole, the Einstein-Rosen (ER) bridge.
As Bohm’s theory demonstrates, determinism and quantum mechanics can certainly coexist and defy locality with internal supraluminal connections, without the need for objective randomness.
Google’s quantum processor is rumored to be close to reaching this goal, imminent quantum supremacy may turn out to have an important application after all: generating pure randomness.
More on this: https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317 and https://gilkalai.wordpress.com/2019/09/23/quantum-computers-amazing-progress-google-ibm-and-extraordinary-but-probably-false-supremacy-claims-google/
What is randomness bias? https://www.quora.com/What-is-randomness-bias
Randomness bias is the natural tendency to see patterns in random data. A simple example that everyone is familiar with is children seeing various pictures in clouds. This cloud looks like the profile of a person’s face, that one looks like a dog, etc. But really the shapes of the clouds are partially random.
The origin of countless conspiracy theories https://www.ted.com/talks/patrickjmt_the_origin_of_countless_conspiracy_theories/transcript
we know that thanks to a mathematical principle called Ramsey theory. It’s the reason we can find geometric shapes in the night sky, it’s why we can know without checking that at least two people in London have exactly the same number of hairs on their head, and it explains why patterns can be found in just about any text, even Vanilla Ice lyrics.
Motzkin’s statement shows the source of most conspiracy theories
Conspiracy theories resist falsification and are reinforced by circular reasoning: both evidence against the conspiracy and an absence of evidence for it, are re-interpreted as evidence of its truth, and the conspiracy becomes a matter of faith rather than proof
Law of small numbers
The law of small numbers says that people underestimate the variability in small samples. Said another way, people overestimate what can be accomplished with a small study
- Gilovich, T. (1991). How we know what isn’t so: The fallibility of human reason in everyday life. New York: Free Press.
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105-110.
- Strong Law of Small Numbers, an observation made by the mathematician Richard K. Guy: “There aren’t enough small numbers to meet the many demands made of them.”